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The foundations of 5G have been laid, but operators are at
risk of missing the full benefits of 5G not just for potential customers, but
also for their bottom lines.
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It’s glass half full and half empty as far as ABI Research
is concerned in its latest report, “Is the Industry — and the World — Ready for
5G Advanced?” While 5G is already the fastest growing cellular generation ever,
nearly all of this growth is concentrated in the consumer market, it states,
leaving the enterprise market “woefully underserviced.”
So, three years after the initial deployment of 5G, the
technology — and the industry — is at a crossroads.
“In order to fully realize the transformative potential of
5G, operators must look beyond selling data plans and SIM cards and instead get
serious about enabling new use cases and empowering the enterprise.
“While there have been some mild successes for enterprises,
such as private cellular (small cells typically deployed in a factory floor, or
warehouse), the revenue generated to this point remains miniscule.”
AIB points to Release 18 — referred to as 5G Advanced — as
the key to unlocking new capabilities and revenue streams however there are
questions about whether operators are poised to take advantage.
“Without 5G Advanced, 5G is doomed to fail and the industry
will be forced to wait for 6G,” the report warns.
5G Advanced Advances
The researcher expects 5G Advanced will be commercially
launched in 2025, and that, by 2030, 75% of 5G base stations will have been
upgraded to 5G Advanced. That accounts for approximately 76 million radios, 23
million macro basebands, and 13 million small cells globally in the consumer
market. In the enterprise market, slower adoption is expected with half of
small cells upgraded to 5G Advanced, accounting for 14 million in 2030.
5G Advanced will introduce several organic improvements to
the cellular standard, but it will also introduce new “radical” features that
aim to introduce significant value for enterprise applications, according to
ABI.
These include positioning improvements that aim to
ultimately reach <1 centimeter accuracy in the future, enable sidelink
relays for a much more flexible deployment approach for on-premises
deployments, and extend the network coverage through Device-to-Device (D2D)
communications.
5G Advanced will also support further sidelink enhancements
beyond Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X). Reduced Capability (RedCap) is another key
feature for 5G Advanced, which will extend 5G capabilities to a number of
power-constrained devices, including smartwatches and other wearables, smart
accessories, surveillance, and machine vision cameras.
The tech will also extend 5G connectivity to a new category
of User Equipment (UE) beyond smartphones to include wearables, drones/Uncrewed
Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), surveillance and machine vision cameras, massive
Internet of Things (IoT), and passive IoT devices.
“The new standards will be packed with a number of
transformational features likely to enable the creation of new use cases and
business opportunities not possible with existing 5G frameworks.”
For example, ABI suggests that commercial availability of 5G
Advanced networks will mark a key milestone for the scalability navigation and
wayfinding in public venues, such as sporting and entertainment arenas. A
number of use cases will open up including enhanced AR/VR experiences through
providing accurate positioning information on moving targets like players.
By 2030, ABI Research expects more than one billion
smartphone shipments worldwide to support 5G Advanced positioning alongside
more than 90 million 5G Advanced RedCap wearables and AR/VR devices, and 595
million 5G Advanced personal trackers.
Perhaps most critically, adoption of 5G positioning
technology requires timely support from 5G infrastructure suppliers and Mobile
Network Operators (MNOs).
“Barring a couple of proofs of concept from companies like
Qualcomm and Huawei, incumbent 5G infrastructure suppliers are barely talking
about 5G positioning capabilities, which is a stark contrast from how heavily
5G was promoted in its ability to target high-throughput low-latency enterprise
applications several years ago.”
ABI adds, “It is not clear whether operators are motivated
enough to support these advanced positioning capabilities, and questions remain
about the ability of these operators to monetize 5G positioning in the future.”
6G Discussions Ramp Up
It wasn’t that long ago that the idea of a 6G was dismissed
as irrelevant but research into 5G’s successor is well underway. 5G Advanced is
considered the foundation for the next generation of Mobile Broadband (MBB) and
will set the scene for 6G.
6G will focus on such concepts as distributed intelligence,
blending the physical and virtual worlds, and the full use of AI/ML throughout
the network.
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