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Within a decade, it is entirely plausible that more than
half of live events could be held in the metaverse. What’s more, a massive 80%
of commerce could be impacted by something consumers do virtually. And by 2030,
most learning and development could happen in a metaverse environment, as could
most virtual or hybrid collaboration. All of which could generate $5 trillion
into the global economy within the next eight years.
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All this is according to McKinsey & Company, which
has compiled an exhaustive status report, “Value creation in the metaverse,” on
the birth of the next-gen internet.
“We expect the economic value of the metaverse to rise
exponentially. Its appeal spans genders, geographies, sectors, and
generations,” says Eric Hazan, one of the report’s authors. “Consumers are open
to adopting new technologies; companies are investing heavily in the
development of metaverse infrastructure; and brands experimenting in the
metaverse are getting positive feedback from consumers.”
It expects us to spend up to six hours a day on average in
metaverse experiences by 2030 as more of what we all do moves online.
Of all the potential drivers of the economic impact of the
metaverse, e-commerce is the largest. McKinsey estimates it may have a market
impact of $2 trillion to $2.6 trillion by 2030, a contribution which dwarfs
sectors such as academic virtual learning (an estimated $180 billion to $270
billion impact by 2030), advertising ($144 billion to $206 billion) and gaming
($108 billion to $125 billion).
“There’s an opportunity to reimagine public services and
infrastructure in the metaverse,” Hazan says. “This opens new avenues to
providing public services like education and healthcare, creating employment,
and planning community spaces. One big challenge will be making sure the public
sector talent base is well equipped to shape priorities for the greatest social
good and to work with technology providers to make that happen.”
Almost 60% of consumers McKinsey surveyed for this report
say they are excited about the transition of everyday activities to the
metaverse, with connectivity being the number one driver of excitement. The
kind of connectivity they are talking about mostly means socializing and
communicating with family and friends.
McKinsey points out that connectivity also encompasses a
broad range of activities offering commercial growth opportunities, such as
entertainment (66% of consumers responded they were “excited” or “very excited”
about attending live events such as concerts and sports, as well as seeing movies
and attending festivals and museums online) and gaming (66%).
Oddly, travel is another activity that 62% of respondents
were “excited” or “very excited” about (62%). As McKinsey observes, the main
themes in metaverse-specific travel relate to the possibility of going beyond
the limits of the physical world: time travel, fantastical places, exotic
places that are difficult to access, and space travel.
This suggests to me that respondents have no real idea what
the metaverse is. Moreover, being excited about connectivity is something they
can do online now — through video calls or social media. I’m not sure why
anyone would be exciting about visiting a sports event in the metaverse if they
actually knew what that entailed (stuck in a VR headset, miles from the
action).
However, the report is most concerned with the major impact
the metaverse will have on our commercial and personal lives. It advises
businesses, policymakers, and citizens to explore and understand as much as
they can about this phenomenon, the technology that will underpin it, and the
ramifications it will have for economies and the wider society.
Ninety-five percent of company executives also believe the
metaverse will have a positive impact on their industry, per the report. About
a third of them think the metaverse can bring significant change in how their
industry operates, and a quarter of them believe it will generate more than 15%
of corporate revenue in the next five years.
With such potentially great reward comes great
responsibility.
“Organizations should take care to develop products
responsibly, taking the opportunity to embed and engender digital trust while
the metaverse is still in its formative stage,” says Lareina Yee, senior
partner at McKinsey.
In the report, LEGO Ventures’ MD Rob Lowe puts it like this:
“This is the right time to be thinking, okay, in real life, you have
playgrounds and schools. And very clearly, they’re fun, playful spaces. But,
equally, in the same way that you wouldn’t have a child walking alone after
midnight in the middle of Soho, you wouldn’t want the same thing to happen in
the metaverse.
“So, how can we build that in a way that allows kids to have
these creative, social experiences that they deserve and want to have, but
build it in a way from the ground up so we’re not trying to layer over it and
fix it in the future?”
Hazan urges business leaders to think about how “digital trust”
in the metaverse can be defined.
“There are urgent challenges that need to be considered,” he
says. “There’s going to be a need to reskill part of the workforce to take
advantage of, rather than compete with, the metaverse. Stakeholders will need
to build a roadmap to make sure the metaverse experience is ethical, safe, and
inclusive. This means creating guidelines around issues like data privacy,
security, ethics, physical safety, sustainability, and equity.”
In McKinsey’s view, the metaverse should not be a substitute
for the real world or the in-person connections that bind us. It should
complement what people do and, like virtual and in-person offices, allow free
movement between the virtual and physical worlds in a way that expands our
range of experiences rather than limiting them.
But ensuring that happens requires collective leadership to
ensure the actions taken responsibly shape the evolution of this revolution.
In the end, with its potential to generate up to $5 trillion
in value by 2030, the metaverse is simply too big to be ignored.
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