Friday, 7 February 2025

Live sports drive subs, retention but there’s bigger opportunity on the table

Stream TV Insider

article here

Exclusive sports rights will be a critical asset for streaming services this year as new figures from Ampere Analysis demonstrate how the content has been successfully used to attract users and keep them engaged on platforms long term.

And there’s potential for bigger opportunity as the business rationale for aggregating fan favorite sports content on a single holistic platform is also underscored by Ampere’s polling of consumers across markets.

We will see a continuation of a trend from 2024 where, according to Ampere’s SVOD economics data, exclusive coverage of key sports helped streamers gain and retain subs in saturated markets, such as the U.S. and the UK.

Peacock's exclusive NFL coverage of the Miami Dolphins versus the Kansas City Chiefs in January 2024 game brought in a record-breaking 2.5 million U.S subscribers one-day sign up for the Comcast/NBCU streamer and nearly 60% of these are still active a year after the game.

A month later, 3.7 million U.S. subscribers flocked to CBS’ companion streamer Paramount+ to watch Patrick Mahomes lead the Chiefs to a 25-22 victory over the 49ers at Super Bowl LVIII. Nearly half of sign-ups to Paramount+ then stayed on the platform for at least three months, per Ampere.

“These milestones highlighted the impact of exclusive sports coverage for streamers in subscriber acquisition,” said Mayssa Jamil, senior analyst at Ampere. “It indicates that users were either drawn to the platform’s broader content offering—opting for a longer commitment where an annual plan was available—, or they initially signed up just to watch the game but decided to remain onboard after exploring the platform’s catalog.”

Netflix will have tracked similar behavior for its recent exclusive live sports events. The Jake Paul versus Mike Tyson boxing bout in November drove the streamer’s largest single day sign-ups since Ampere started tracking this data in 2018 with 1.6 million new subscribers in the U.S. Netflix chased that with two NFL games on Christmas Day, which according to Ampere estimates landed an additional 700,000 subscribers. January’s debut of WWE Raw (the start of a $5 billion ten-year deal) contributed another 250,000 new sign-ups.

Some 75% of subscribers to the Paul / Tyson fight are still subscribed today, estimates Ampere. And over 85% of the NFL Christmas Day game are also still believed to be subscribed to Netflix today. “Given that nearly 80% of the combined users were still subscribed as of the WWE premiere, it’s likely that many stayed on the platform in anticipation of further live sports content,” said Jamil.

“These examples highlight the ability of sports content to capture a previously untapped user base that will subsequently engage with the broader catalog,” said Daniel Harraghy, research manager of sports at Ampere.

Fragmentation justifies aggregation

Ampere’s survey of internet users between 18 and 64 across all markets found that 46% said they felt overwhelmed by the number of streaming services available but that nearly half (48%) of sports fans would be willing to pay extra to have all their sport accessible from a single location.

“The increasing number of platforms and services acquiring rights to sports properties seems to be driving fan preferences for easier access to the sports they love,” he added.

Venu Sports, the sports mega-streamer proposed by Disney, Warner Bros and Fox Sports, was to be such an aggregated service but this was turned over when Disney decided to pact with FuboTV last month (ending FuboTV’s legal challenge to its launch). Shortly after, the JV partners dissolved Venu.

While there remains uncertainty as to how Disney will integrate FuboTV (which in the merger announcement included speculation of a new sports service featuring Disney's sports networks such as ESPN+) Disney remains on track to launch a new DTC flagship for ESPN later this year.

Ampere believe the ESPN flagship remains key to Disney’s sport streaming strategy. “That's where ESPN are going to be committed in the streaming space,” said Harraghy. “It’s a response to the decline of traditional cable distributed TV. ESPN has a really attractive rights portfolio (including UFC, MLB, NHL, PGA Tour golf and college sports) and the potential to be a very strong offering for fans.

“Success will come from driving subscription growth specifically from cord cutters without, at the same time, being a driver of cord cutting. The carriage fees that ESPN gets from its TV partners in the US remain very lucrative so Disney will not want to impact that adversely.”

What do young sports fans want? The data is complicated

Altman Solon's Global Sports Survey published at the end of last year also confirmed that interest in live sports remains high across all generations, with approximately 60% of sports fans across all geographies saying they tune in to televised sports at least monthly.

However, it pointed out that sports rights holders risk undermining future media rights values with high fees and paywalls. Younger fans might be keen on sport but are unwilling or unable to pay for the live event, it suggested. In its Digital Trends Report 2025 sports producer IMG noted that fans are increasingly drawn towards community-focused platforms like YouTube and Reddit.

Calling it a “serious problem” Altman Solon’s David Dellea said short-form content cannot replace the unique commercial value of live sports. “The critical question for rights holders is: how can we navigate challenges of discovery and access to funnel younger audiences to a live product that they want to watch?”

Ampere’s consumer data underscores a division between younger demographics, who prefer to watch sports via streaming, and older fans who prefer sports on linear TV. However, it also suggests that fans aged 18 to 34 years are actually willing to spend more on their favorite sports content than older generations. Ampere’s data further suggests younger fans spend more time watching live sports than they do engaging with non-live sports including highlights, digital clips or podcasts.

“However, relative to the average, they spend a smaller amount of time watching live sport,” clarified Harraghy. “They spend more time than the average [sports fan] engaging with other types of sports content such as engaging with athletes through social media, and more time than the average watching highlights and clips from games. 

“The fact that younger demographics are still watching live sport more than they are with highlights suggest that live is still really valuable,” he noted.

And since they want to watch sports via streaming, it suggests streaming platforms in the sports space “are well positioned to be key media rights buyers and broadcasters of the future.”

The analyst highlighted an opportunity to create “a really holistic platform.”

He said, “There could be a really strong option where a streamer is able to tap into audiences both with the live content and also attract users to with new forms of social video clips and highlights packages. Such a platform might also include fantasy gaming and betting.

“The streamers that will do well will be those that create a really broad ecosystem that then attracts younger fans into it, not just through the live rights but through everything else that they're engaging with in the sports media space.”

Ad-supported live sports streaming

Streamers have been slower to invest in live sport than other types of content. Part of that has been technological. Producing and broadcasting live sport at scale is a different kind of challenge to on- demand content. But the other challenge is monetizing those rights and that’s where advertising plays a key role.

Most major streamers (Apple excluded) have all launched ad tiers both domestically and in international markets signifying a shift in their strategic focus towards maximizing ad reach and impressions.

“Sport is one of the last appointment to view pieces of content that can sometimes bring in millions of fans to a single place at a single time and that’s really attractive to advertisers,” said Harraghy.

Amazon for example has subtly shifted its sports strategy from short periods of exclusivity (such as broadcasting a handful of live English Premier League soccer fixtures a couple times a year in the UK) to having major live sports content across every month of the year. In 2025, these include in the U.S. WNBA, NWSL, NASCAR, NFL and NBA.

“Retaining sports fans for the full year and across full seasons keeps customers within that Prime ecosystem, reduces churn and drives additional revenue for Amazon beyond subscription payments,” the analyst said.

In an extensive blog post on LinkedIn, Gareth Capon, the CEO at sport streaming specialist Grabyo, said investing in live programming is no longer optional for streamers—"it's a necessity,” adding that “advertising is the heart of the new battle in the streaming wars 2.0.

Streamers (including YouTube, which is paying the NFL a reported $2 billion a year for Sunday Ticket games) are “banking on live programming to not only draw in subscribers but also bring in lucrative advertising deals that can rival traditional TV and promise access to the under-35 demographic the advertisers care about,” he wrote.

Yet sports rights are expensive. Capon makes the point that sports are IP you rent, but don’t own. ESPN/ABC, NBCU and Amazon Prime Video for example are reportedly paying the NBA $76 billion over 11 years - an increase of 160% per season.

“The tough part is that this only gives distributors the right to broadcast the games, not to own the IP,” he wrote. “You cannot ‘own’ a sport without buying it outright or creating a breakaway league or new format.  As media companies pivot to this new age, controlling live content, especially sports, will be a linchpin of long-term success.”

Ampere’s Harraghy agreed that streamers face a “profitability challenge” which is why we’ve seen rights holders carve out smaller packages for streamers to date.

“There will be a slow burn transition as streamers gradually start to make sense of how to monetize sports rights most effectively,” the analyst commented. “With many streamers in the early stages of broadcasting sport and still developing an understanding of its strategic merits, the race for sports rights is likely to be a marathon, not a sprint.” 

 


No comments:

Post a Comment