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In 2024, we will
face a grim digital dark age, as social media platforms transition away from
the logic of Web 2.0 and toward one dictated by AI-generated content, says Gina
Neff, executive director of the Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy at
the University of Cambridge. Writing for Wired, she says online trust
will reach an all-time low thanks to unchecked disinformation, AI-generated
content, and social platforms pulling up their data drawbridges.
article here
Her view is echoed
in a new report by the World Economic Forum, which highlights risk of
AI-generated mis- and disinformation in exacerbating a cost-of-living crisis
and socio-political polarization.
The WEF’s 2024
Global Risks Report is based on the views of 1,500 global risks experts,
policy-makers, and industry leaders. It finds that the world’s top three risks
over the next two years are false information, extreme weather, and societal
polarization.
Cr: World Economic
Forum
The threat posed by
mis- and disinformation takes the top spot in part because of just how much
open access to increasingly sophisticated technologies may proliferate,
disrupting trust in information and institutions.
“The boom in
synthetic content that we’ve seen in 2023 will continue, and a wide set of
actors will likely capitalize on this trend, with the potential to amplify
societal divisions, incite ideological violence, and enable political
repression,” said Saadia Zahidi, MD and head of the Centre for the New Society
and Economy at the WEF.
What’s more, false
information and societal polarization are linked, with potential to amplify
each other. Zahidi said, “Polarized societies may become polarized not only in
their political affiliations, but also in their perceptions of reality. That
can have a profound impact on many crucial issues ranging from public health to
social justice and education to the environment.”
These trends are
occurring at a time of heightened economic hardship for many people around the
globe. Together, this “potent mix” of economic distress, false information, and
societal divisions can create challenges for many societies, “providing fertile
ground for continued strife, uncertainty, and erratic decision-making,” the WEF
warns.
This has broad
repercussions for the long-term outlook. A decade from now, according to the
WEF’s Global Risks Report, the top three risks are all related to the climate
emergency: extreme weather, change to Earth systems, and biodiversity loss.
Mis- and disinformation stays high on the agenda at number five, followed by
other adverse outcomes of AI technologies at number six, and involuntary
migration at number seven, while societal polarization also stays in the top
10.
In response to the
uncertainties surrounding generative AI and the need for robust AI governance
frameworks, the Forum has launched the AI Governance Alliance.
The aim of the
Alliance is to unite industry leaders, governments, academic institutions, and
civil society organizations to champion responsible global design and release
of transparent and inclusive AI systems.
Benjamin Larsen,
the WEF’s Lead on AI and ML, says, “Sustained dialogue lays the groundwork for
greater cooperation and a potential reversal of digital fragmentation.”
Neff laments the
shut down in access to user data on social media sites like Twitter or
Facebook. “Companies have rushed to incorporate large language models into
online services, complete with hallucinations (inaccurate, unjustified
responses) and mistakes, which have further fractured our trust in online
information,” she says.
To clean up online
platforms and prevent the excesses of polarization she calls for the adoption
of the STAR Framework (Safety by Design, Transparency,
Accountability, and Responsibility) that she says would ensure that digital
products and services are safe before they are launched; increase transparency
around algorithms, rule enforcement, and advertising; and work to hold
companies both accountable to democratic and independent bodies, and
responsible for omissions and actions that lead to harm.
The EU’s Digital
Services Act is another step in the right direction of regulation, but its
capacity to ensure that independent researchers can monitor social network
platforms will take years to be actionable. The UK’s Online Safety Bill —
slowly making its way through the policy process — could also help, but again,
these provisions will take time to implement.
Until then, Neff
says, “the transition from social media to AI-mediated information means that,
in 2024, a new digital dark age will likely begin.
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