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Twenty years ago industrial designer Stephen Tibbitts wrote a proposal to NASA
for a grant to develop an electric-powered vertical take-off and landing
aircraft. Nobody wanted to listen and without funding he was forced to park his
idea. Now the space and aeronautics agency is a prime mover in the bid to
develop eVTOLs and Tibbitts’ company Zeva Aero is one of a handful to have
successfully flown a full-scale craft.
The Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) sector is poised for take
off. Morgan Stanley Research believes that such aircraft could be common by
2040 projecting a total addressable market of $1.5 trillion. Venture capital
and public money is pouring into eVTOL projects to fund start-ups like Zeva
Aero and ‘flying taxi’ prototypes of automotive giants like Hyundai. Morgan
Stanley’s more bullish forecast places the market at $2.9tn.
Tibbitts thinks even this is conservative. “If you project
out, AAM could be bigger than automotive. It is no longer science fiction.”
“Essentially, we’re seeing a convergence of macro factors
like decarbonisation and increasing urbanisation with the maturity of
technology that enables Advanced Air Mobility,” explains James Richmond, head
of AAM for design and consultancy Atkins.
“We’ve talked about the idea of these new types of aircraft
for a long time, but the technology is now maturing to make it a reality – and
the fact that these aircrafts are zero emission, electric-powered vehicles that
can play a role in tackling some of these big societal challenges like the need
for more sustainable aviation. Now is the time there is both a ‘push’ and a
‘pull’ in terms of technology and market demand respectively.”
Electric technology advances
The vertical take-off and landing concept has been
around for decades mainly in military use. Like those, an eVTOL takes off and
lands vertically, but when at cruising altitude flies similarly to a plane. The
vertical launch means the eVTOL doesn’t require a long runway and it offers
carbon-free air travel. Flights would launch from special ‘Vertiports’ of which
hundreds of thousands will be needed to facilitate point to point journeys.
“At a foundational level, the technologies that enable
successful eVTOL operations, such as batteries, are at a place today fit to
build an economically viable business,” says Adam Goldstein, CEO and founder at
eVTOL maker Archer Aviation. “VCs who are attuned to the space understand
this timeline, as well as the promise of the eVTOL industry, and the many
benefits this next generation of transportation will bring.”
While the end goal is mass market consumer transport, the
two initial target markets are business oriented.
In a 2021 paper NASA states that “eVTOL aircraft
will have the potential to become an essential tool to Public Service agencies
around the world in applications such as firefighting, public safety, search
and rescue, disaster relief and law enforcement.”
In 2018 NASA funded an industry contest aimed at
accelerating UAM development. It has since teamed with Elroy Air to develop the
world’s first automated VTOL aerial cargo system (VTOL is a hybrid EV and
conventionally-fuelled craft which will have the longer ranges and greater
payload before electric technology catches up).
“Fire departments are responsible for regions that are very
wide spread and they want vehicles that can carry a medic with a full life
saving kit,” Tibbitts says. “They want 120 miles range to fly out and return.
Our target is a vehicle that will fulfil that need.”
Zeva has a ship-to-shore model in development called Z2 with
interest from the US Navy. “The Navy has an RFP out for a compact VTOL that
doesn’t require a launch or capture system and can haul 200lb ship to shore,”
he explains. “The other category is rich people. Our compact design can land on
almost any boat without modification. It doesn’t have to be mega yachts.”
UAM for business travellers
The pitch to the business traveller is about time, speed and
efficiency.
“From JFK to Manhattan by road can take two-three hours,”
says James Bircumshaw, UK and EMEA infrastructure manager, at AAM
infrastructure group Skyports. “By air it’s six minutes. Traditionally
the only other way is by helicopter and these are prohibitively expensive to
the mass market including most business travellers.”
Skyports is a recipient of the UK Government’s Future Flight
Challenge providing grants to help accelerate AAM. This includes building a new
test vertiport outside London. Separately, the company last year acquired a
public heliport close to Canary Wharf and plans to develop it as a potential
vertiport for eVTOL aircraft.
“This will not replace the bus or train. Paddington Express
is going to be the quickest route from Heathrow to central London. But Heathrow
to Canary Wharf? That’s 90 minutes on public transport or two hours by car.
eVTOL will start with premium customers and eventually get to a price point
that is mass transportation.”
The lead times for craft certification take years and
building an operational aviation grade infrastructure even longer but with the
first eVOTLs on track to be certified by 2024-25 developers like Skyports says
they need to invest now or risk missing out.
This business case is being backed by concrete orders.
California-based Archer has a $1 billion order with an option for an additional
$500 million of aircraft from United Airlines as part of the airline’s
“commitment to decarbonisation” according to Goldstein.
“The partnership will enable United customers to travel to
and from airports in a sustainable manner,” while helping Archer accelerate its
own development roadmap.
Last month, Archer received the first $10m pre-delivery
payment from United, one of the first of its kind in the industry.
The four year-old company listed on the NY stock exchange in
February 2021 valued at $3.8bn. It is focused on urban air mobility (UAM) where
VCs are convinced that eVTOL aircraft can overcome the overcrowding, pollution,
and aging transportation infrastructure. The developer has already signed
partnerships with Los Angeles and Miami, “two cities in the heart of the
overcrowding crisis.”
“We’re focused on improving urban mobility, easing commuter
congestion, and making it possible for passengers to experience new parts of
their surroundings made accessible by the speed and range of eVTOL travel.”
Archer’s ‘Midnight’ craft has 12 rotors, with six tilting
rotors in front of the wing and six fixed rotors used for the transition phase
of flight that are only used for hover and cruise.
“This design is key to our production aircraft’s ability to
fly at 150mph for distances of up to 100 miles, enabling intra-city mobility as
well as longer range trips to the areas surrounding cities,” Goldstein
explains. “It will have a payload of over 1,000 pounds and carry four
passengers, plus a pilot.”
Remote region connectivity
Other eVTOL companies that are working on UAM are building
wingless multirotors with ranges of 10-15 miles, with design differences
emphasising the aircrafts’ varying purposes. Zeva’s Zero craft for instance is
uniquely saucer shaped and will fly one passenger/pilot over 50 miles at
160mph.
Tibbitts thinks the urban-first approach is fraught with
difficulty. “The hurdles to clearing regulation in any city is horrendous. I
think the FAA [Federal Aviation Authority] is very open to discussion and to
getting the rules in place but I don’t see this as short term.”
He points instead to use cases for eVTOL in remote parts of
the world “that are never going to have infrastructure like roads. Indonesia
comprises 18000 islands. Norway has a similar disperse geography, or the Amazon
basin. That is where eVOTL shines.”
Bircumshaw disagrees and says the focus of most of the
industry is on UAM. “eVOTL companies have raised millions if not billions of
dollars and they are not going to return that investment by operating a fleet of
five vehicles for search and rescue work. They have to be operating in LA or
Dubai, markets where they can get thousands of movements through every day.”
Aviation tests, safety and certification
eVTOL manufacturers are currently accruing the thousands of
hours of flight testing necessary for certification.
According to Richmond, aviation authorities are already
developing regulation in their jurisdiction – “in the UK, the CAA has already
established a route to certification – as are the likes of the FAA in America
and the EASA for the EU.”
Tibbetts says Zeva is certified to fly today as an
experimental aircraft and provided the pilot has a licence and flies over
nonpopulated areas during the day.
Bircumshaw concedes there are ‘massive safety concerns’ which
is why eVOTL are undergoing rigorous tests.
“These vehicles are being certified to the same safety level
as an Airbus A320 commercial jet. There are no shortcuts. They will be safer
than helicopters.”
Archer says it is on track to certify Midnight for commercial
use by the end of 2024. Once FAA Type Certification has been obtained, it plans
to launch the first [business consumer] flights in 2025.
By 2026 up to half a dozen different eVTOL crafts could be
certified for use, predicts Bircumshaw. “We need to be ready,” he says.
Skyports’ main European test site at the Cergy Pontoise
Airfield, Paris, is timed to open for the Olympics 2024.
“We want to do very advanced demos from Charles de Gualle to
the Olympics village. To do that we are spending the next two years in
extensive tests with vehicle manufacturers and a number of other partners to
make the ecosystem viable.”
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