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“In 20 years, when we look back, we
are going to think that this is the year that everything changed,” says Gartner
analyst Leigh McMullen. “I don’t know if any of us feel like that future’s too
futuristic anymore. I don’t think it feels like science fiction.”
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Generative AI is going to make us all individually
better, according to a new future trends
report by Gartner. The report was unveiled by McMullen
at the Gartner IT Symposium/Xpo in a session entitled “Strategic Predictions
for 2024 & Beyond: The Year Everything Changed,” that you can watch in full
above.
“With generative AI we have the
ability to let individuals profit from innovations and technology, free up time,
become better at what they do, maybe even spend a little bit more time with
their families,” McMullen said. “Generative AI has the ability to help us write
better it has the ability to help us engage with our customers more intimately.
It has the ability to make us more charismatic.”
The latter might seem odd but Gartner
is actually predicting that by 2026 30% of workers will leverage digital
“charisma filters” to achieve previously unattainable advances in their
careers.
Which begs the question: What’s a
charisma filter?
McMullen explains, “We’re
talking about the ability to increase your presence in the spoken word,
increase your presence in the written word, increase your presence in your
organization, virtually.”
We’re already seeing technology from organizations
like NVIDIA that will adjust your eyelines so you’re always looking right down
the barrel of the camera and that will skinny you up or make you look a little
bit prettier.
“Digital charisma filters are going
to help us in our organizations achieve new sorts of personal heights that will
help us achieve new levels of personal performance.”
It’s also going to become an
indicator of national performance.
The analyst thinks that the
productivity value of AI will be recognized as a primary indicator of national
power. It’s not farfetched given that we already use indicators of productivity
GDP and organizational productivity as a source of power by making it a
national benchmark.
“By making it something that we
report on as nations this will cause greater investment it will speed this
transformation into a world where we all prosper.”
By 2027, a quarter of Fortune 500
companies will actively recruit neurodiverse talent across conditions like
autism, ADHD and dyslexia to improve business performance.
“Neurodiversity and cognitive
diversity are superpowers for organizations. When you have cognitively diverse
people, they see problems in different ways. They see opportunities in
different ways. And they will create different ways to engage with each other,
to engage with customers, to engage with citizens, to engage with fellow
employees to unlock new sources of value,” says McMullen.
“This is not about giving some group
of people special privileges,” McMullen stresses, “It’s not about shifting
privilege around. It’s about creating an environment where we can all take our
masks off, and be our authentic selves at work. And the value that that is
going to unlock is tremendous.”
Another prediction: By 2028, there
will be more smart robots than frontline workers in manufacturing, retail and
logistics.
Since COVID, we’ve already seen more
and more jobs replaced by machines. Just think of your local supermarket
check-out.
Gartner thinks it is realistic to
start imagining that by 2028 robots might start out in the workforce, not just
in a highly-advanced supply chain but “everywhere across our ecosystem.”
Indeed, we need to start thinking about generative AI as a new user interface.
“Whether that interfaces at a
terminal that I’m talking to, or whether that interface is in a robot that’s
making my coffee for me, it’s going to become a new user interface.”
Generative AI will be a new
machine-to-human interface and a new and increasingly important
machine-to-machine interface.
By 2026, 30% of large companies will
have a dedicated business unit, or sales channels to access fast growing
machine customer markets, Gartner predicts.
When it comes to threats and risks,
Gartner predicts that “mal-information” is going to become a multi front threat
by 2028, by which time the enterprise will be spending $30 billion a year
trying to combat it. What is mal-information? The analyst describes this term
as “algorithmically groomed and targeted disinformation or even the truth which
is out of context and designed to change mental models.”
Today, mal-information is a $78
billion threat, which is just “people to people mal-information.” AI-based
mal-information “will cause your AI to have a hallucination or cause it to
ingest data that causes it to hallucinate. And that has the potential to grow
to enormous sums.”
McMullen concludes with a call to
action. “I’m imploring you to take the decisions that you make today and into
the future about generative AI very, very seriously because we are literally
the last generation of managers who get to make those decisions,” he says.
After those decisions are made it
will become a one-way door, “which will become very, very difficult to
reverse.”
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