https://issuu.com/newbayeurope/docs/tvbe_mar16/28
It is traditional for press to wait in line for up to three hours just to get into jam packed Consumer Electronics Show (CES) news conferences but this year along with those of the major TV vendors, the queues were snaking round the block for YouTube. Samsung and LG press events were still standing room only – but they lacked the buzz of keynotes from Netflix and YouTube.
It was symbolic of the show's key theme which was of power draining from old TV straight into digital video.
“I believe digital video will overtake TV to become the single largest way people spend their free time before the end of the decade,” predicted YouTube chief business officer Robert Kyncl, the day after Netflix CEO Reed Hastings announced the next steps in global domination by lighting up 130 new territories for the OTT subscription service.
Smartphones are emerging as the TV screen's biggest competitor, and are increasingly being used for long form viewing, not just short clips. Kyncl said the average viewer now watches 1 hour 15 minutes of digital video per day, a number that will grow. Google claims that YouTube on mobile alone reaches more 18-34 and 18-49 year-olds than any cable network and that 600,000 people in the U.S cut their cable subscriptions last quarter.
Added to that, TV shipments are down, with IHS reporting the biggest annual decline in five years for Q2 2015. It expects no growth in 2016 either.
The CTA (Consumer Technology Association), which owns and produces CES, was slightly more optimistic. It projects revenues will reach $19 billion for all TV sets and displays in 2016, on par with 2015, as volumes drop one percent to just under 40 million units. Well-established technologies including smartphones, televisions and laptops will lead to a small growth in the CE market this year. While these categories account for 51 percent of the industry’s revenue, the catalysts for future growth are newer innovations such as wearables, virtual reality and drones.
“The industry is at an inflection point, because nascent categories will continue to gain market share,” explained Shawn DuBravac, chief economist, CTA.
It's doubtful that any of the 3800 exhibiting companies truly achieves the impact they want at CES amid all the white noise and the shouting matches which constitute a stand interview. So let's boil it down. From a tech point of view CES2016 was about High Dynamic Range (HDR) and virtual reality (VR) wrapped in an increasingly omnipresent internet of things (IoT).
Drone data
The CTA expects US sales of drones to reach one million units in 2016, a 145% increase from 2015’s total. The US Federal Aviation Authority has mandated registration of all UAVs in response to increased mid-air incidents involving them, one reason why leading developer DJI launched a beta geofencing system called Geospatial Environment Online (GEO), designed to prevent drones from operating in restricted areas.
GEO fitted, a DJI drone will update maps and restrictions based on unfolding events, including sports competitions. It's expected to go live later this year.
Indeed, data gathered by drones is thought to be an even more compelling business case than pure video. “If you shoot a 3D map and print it with your 3D printer, you can get a 3D model of your house, for example,” suggested DJI executive Brendan Schulman. “There are lots of cool things you can do with the data you collect.”
No giant CE company has yet made a move into drones (Sony has development plans and Intel just acquired drone firm Ascending). “Companies deciding to do drones learn just how hard they are to do,” reckoned 3D Robotics, CRO, Colin Guinn. “It’s arguably the most complicated consumer electronics.”
2016 for VR lift off
With over 120 companies touting VR or AR developments in Vegas, virtual reality was the hit of the show. When Facebook's $600 Oculus launches at end of March it will help VR unit sales this year to top 1.2 million in the US, marking a 500% increase from 2015 (source: CTA) and accounting for $540m in revenues. The Diffusion Group reckons global revenues related to VR will top $18bn (€16.6bn) by 2025.
Among companies entering the fray is Zeiss which applied its knowledge of optics to the VR One GX, a phone-based head mounted display costing $130. Unlike Samsung's Gear VR, a phone-tray solution enables the Zeiss device to work with any smartphone on the market today.
NextVR hosted a private viewing of a live streamed NBA game between the Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics, produced with NextVR investor Time Warner-owned Turner Sports. The company also reported that it worked with Qualcomm to develop software for the new Snapdragon 820 processor that enables delivery of live 360-degree content to mobile phones.
One area that promises to give the VR market even more traction will be the increasing availability of 360-degree VR cameras. Nikon's unveiling of its first action camera which shoots 360-degree video in 4K from a 20.8-megapixel sensor, was a surprise. Slightly larger and less of a cube than GoPro Hero, the KeyMission 360 features lenses on front and back, is shockproof to 6.6 feet, waterproof to 100 feet, and touts electronic vibration reduction. It's just the first of Nikon’s action cameras range along with a variety of dedicated accessories to be released this spring.
Well-produced content is “desperately needed” to help VR take off, according to Hollywood execs at a panel on the topic. "A lot of good technology is being developed but there’s also lot of bad content," opined Cliff Plumer, president of VR developer Jaunt Studios.
Sony said it would start selling $300 VR PlayStation goggles by Q2 2016 and Fox announced an a minority investment in VR firm Osterhout Design Group. It also unveiled The Martian VR Experience, companion piece to Ridley Scott's feature.
David Greenbaum, one of the directors of the Fox Innovation Lab that co-produced The Martian VR project, added; "We thought we were just doing R&D, but now people want to buy [VR content]. We are investing time and energy in making the best stuff and getting it out there."
However, Eric Shamlin, executive producer at content studio Secret Location, warned: “It’s probably going to be 2017 before VR content is something you can monetize.”
HDR to the rescue
TV and DVD player makers are pinning their hopes on HDR to reinvigorate the living room big screen as the place to experience the best sound and image.
Helping smooth consumer sales by streamlining the marketing speak used to promote a screen's brightness, the UHD Alliance (of CE vendors such as LG and Sony and content producers like Disney, Netflix) announced 'Ultra HD Premium', a top of the range specification for distributing and displaying content.
To meet the specs, screens must deliver 10-bit colour bit depth, and they must reproduce at least 90 percent of the P3 colour gamut, the same as digitally projected theatrical exhibition. In terms of HDR, the screen must meet SMPTE ST2084 EOTF and deliver certain peak brightness levels.
This should help boost 4K TV sales achieve the $10bn revenue predicted by the CTA in US retail this year 2016. Indeed, all 2016 OLED models from LG feature the Ultra HD Premium seal of approval. Panasonic's new flagship DX900 LED TV series, also has 'Premium' certification as do units from Samsung and Sony.
“UHD sets will be at 21% of sales globally in 2016,” said Steve Koenig, CTA, Snr director of market research. “The vast majority of those will be 50 in. and above. And, as set makers move to 1080p for sets smaller than 50 in. and 4K for sets larger than 50 in., the demise of 720p seems inevitable.”
OTT delivery models can easily accommodate the 20% extra data over ‘normal’ UHD, hence Netflix and YouTube announced plans to launch UHD HDR content later this year. Hastings claimed; “We have over 1000 engineers focusing on better global delivery, more intuitive UIs, incredible picture and audio quality.”
Yet this is a lot more complicated for broadcasters who are still struggling to deliver HD without heavy compression. Frustration with the broadcast HDR standardisation process has forced Technicolor and Philips to marry their respective HDR technologies.
The approach will offer backwards compatibility to Standard Dynamic Range displays, just like the BBC/NHK's HDR proposals and include an HDR solution for live broadcast. But since Technicolor and Philips own a set top box business they are keen to badge their consumer boxes – and screens/STBs of third parties - as offering Technicolor HDR and to compete with rival Dolby Vision.
Dolby announced that Warner Bros., Universal, MGM, and Netflix will all support Dolby Vision with new releases and catalogue titles mastered in the format. Owners of 2016 LG 4K OLEDs will be able to stream HDR content from Netflix on LG’s updated webOS 3.0 Smart TV platform later this year. And in cooperation with Amazon, LG OLEDs will offer the newest original HDR content via Amazon Video.
Rounding out the home entertainment picture: Philips, Panasonic and Samsung announced 4K UHD Blu-ray players with support for high dynamic range while Sony opted to introduce its new 4K on-demand streaming service 'Ultra' that is exclusive to Ultra HD Bravia TVs.
Sony also announced the FDR-AX53 4K Handycam targeting YouTubers. “Two years ago I said, 4K for the price of 2K. Last year, I said 4K for 1K,” explained Sony Electronics president and COO Mike Fasulo, without specifying a price for the camera. “This year I say, 4K for everyone.”
Just another appliance
"We believe the future of TV is still TV,” declared Anthony Smith-Chaigneau, Senior Director of Product Marketing, Nagra, presenting the company's new all-in-one TV experience called intuiTV. Targeted at pay-TV operators as a managed cloud-based platform for adding any mix of premium content with live TV, VOD, SVOD, PVR and social TV.
"The advanced TV market is broken broke and heading toward a cold computer dashboard of coloured tiles," added Smith-Chaigneau. "We believe in unifying this fragmented market for the consumer by having all their entertainment in one place and delivering a much better experience."
With Samsung’s flagship UHD TV KS9500 users can adjust the lighting, watch the baby monitor, and even create “mood schemes” with a group of smart devices. They could even watch TV if they wanted. TV vendors have wised up to the idea that watching TV may no longer be the centre of our lives, but are trying to reaffirm the screen's presence in the living room as a central smart home hub to control the house’s smart devices.
The CTA suggests the IoT will drive the consumer tech industry to $287bn in revenues, an all time high. “The exponential growth of the IoT and the lightning-fast speed of innovation are key reasons we’ll see such strong growth across so many tech categories,” said Shapiro. “Highly sophisticated technology is becoming more affordable and accessible – improving our safety, productivity and entertainment.”
Julie Brill of the US Federal Trade Commission described what the future of the IoT will look like. “The internet will disappear through it and devices will just start to be connected, the way we think about electricity now,” she said.
The TV is becoming just another appliance.
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